The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: 2010 Election Results

by Mark Gerardy

It could have (easily) been much worse for GLBTs, progressives and our supporters. On Tuesday, there were some real key wins. Considering the economy, Democrats actually held tight and lost much less than expected and there were key important victories along the way. The so-called "Republican tidal wave" is media hype, while there was a wave of Republican victories, a tidal wave would mean taking back both the House and Senate, in which they did not. In most mid-term elections, the underdog party takes back both, it is unusual to only win either the House or Senate. The largest defeat was losing the House of Representatives, the largest victory, beyond retaining pro-GLBT elected officials, are many of the governors races that went Democrat. Hawaii elected a Democrat governor and Rhode Island elected an independent. Both support same-sex marriage in states whose legislatures are poised to pass civil marriage and marriage equality laws, respectively.

The 2012 campaign season officially starts today, and Obama's current 44% approval rating mirrors all other recent presidents at mid-terms. I expect a tough race between Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin for the Republican nomination, with Romney winning over Palin, but Palin being the vice presidential candidate again. The biggest issue is the economy, specifically jobs. If unemployment stays above 10%, then we can expect a Republican tsunami in 2012. If unemployment drops below 5%-6%, then Obama's chances of being re-elected increase dramatically. Barack Obama and Congress must work to get unemployment below at least 8% in order to get re-elected.

Analysis and Election Results:

1) Percent of Republican votes in the Colorado governor race (latest poll shows 9% support, which would make the GOP a minor party for the next 4 years) would force the GOP to reconsider their anti-gay platform, if a moderately conservative state like Colorado rejects the party.

Victory: This is a resounding positive, with John Hickenlooper winning 50%+ of the votes, Tancredo trailing by 37% and Maes around 10%. I was surprised by how well that Tancredo did as a far-right fringe candidate running on an independent ticket, but Hickenlooper still won by double digits. However, I would consider Colorado to be a moderately progressive state. Colorado is approximately #11 in terms of pro-GLBT rights overall (in seven categories).

2)Retention vote for Iowa’s Supreme Court would prove that queer-bashing over marriage is no longer a winner at election time.

Defeat: All three judges were voted out of office. This could have a potential chilling effect on future rulings.

3) Will determine the likelihood of legislative enactment in 2011 of marriage equality in New York. The lower house passed the law, but the GOP has blocked it in the Senate. Number of Republicans (if any) replaced by Democrats in the New York state senate.

Tie: Democrats will still have a 32-30 majority in the New York Senate.

4) Barney Frank re-election to Congress in Massachusetts – the first openly gay member of Congress is facing a tough re-election battle).

Victory: Barney Frank was re-elected with over 65% of the vote.

5) New Jersey legislature – a rise in D membership might lead to a vote for marriage, even though the R governor says he will veto.

Victory: There were many wins for Democrats in the New Jersey legislature.

6) Hawaii governor – a D victory makes it likely the Aloha state will enact Civil Unions next year.

Victory: Democrat Abercrombie soundly defeated Aiona.


7) Minnesota governor – a D victory will make a real debate on Civil Unions in the legislature likely.

Victory: Democrat Dayton narrowly won over Emmer.

8) Florida attorney general - will determine what happens next on the anti-gay adoption law. The courts have consistently ruled against Florida, but the AG keeps fighting for this cruel, mean-spirited law. It appears the outgoing AG has given up, but a Republican victory could revive an appeal.

Defeat: Republican Pam Bondi won over Dan Gelber; however the genie is out of the bottle and gay parents are already adopting. Once taken effect and the public adapts to the the status quo, then it is more difficult to repeal and existing pro-GLBT law.

#10) California prop 19 (marijuana legalization) – a passage will signal that we’ve moved beyond simple medical marijuana (which was an issue for AIDS care), and will force the CA legislature and the Federal Congress to address this issue. The current initiative statute is so badly written as to be unusable for the stated goal of legalization, but if it shows common sense on drugs is not a loser, then the legislative branch will start to discuss this and other issues.

Defeat: Proposition 19 did not pass.

Mark's Supplemental Analysis:

Victory: In one of the closest races of 2010, Michael Bennet barely eked out a 47.4% to 47% victory over Ken Buck, astounding Republicans. While Ken Buck was not nearly as radically homophobic as many other candidates who had closer ties to the National Organization for Marriage (NOM), his views certainly were not pro-GLBT at all. With a Democrat mayor, Democrat governor, Democrat State House and Senate, and both Democrat Senators, Colorado is definitely moderate to liberal. Buck was leading in the polls between 3% to 10% going into the election.

Victory: Lisa Murkowski, as a write-in candidate, is leading 41% over Republican Joe Miller at 34%. A write-in candidate has not won the Senate since Strom Thurman in 1954, making this highly unusual.

Victory: In one of the biggest surprises, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid beat Sharron Angle 50% to 45% - despite Nevada having the highest unemployment rate, around 15%. Some assert that Karl Rove himself was heavily involved with Angle's campaign.

Victory: An easy victory for Delaware Senate Chris Coons who beat out infamous Christine O'Donnell, 54% to 40%, who tops the list of unelectable candidates based on her views, lack of the most basic knowledge of the Constitution, the issues that she considers important and her inflammatory rhetoric on social issues.

Victory: Every single NOM candidate failed.

Victory: California retained Barbara Boxer in the US Senate and Jerry Brown will once again be the Democrat governor of the Golden State, having easily defeated former CEO of EBay, conservative Meg Whitman. Whitman, by the way, threw $140 billion of her own money into this race, and was a supporter of so-called "traditional marriage" and retaining Proposition 8.

Victory: Arkansas elects Democrat governor, despite the sea of red states, Colorado being one of the few exceptions before reaching the coastal states.

Defeat: Republican John Boehner will be Speaker of the House, replacing Nancy Pelosi.

Defeat: Wisconsin Senate: Republican Ron Johnson beat popular long-time Democrat Russ Feingold.

Defeat: Kentucky Senate: Republican Rand Paul won despite his conservative-libertarian, pro-business-at-all-costs views regarding the Uniform Commerical Code as justification to repeal the 1964 Civil Rights Act.

Defeat: Kansas: Republican and arch-homophobe Sam Brownback has left the Senate, but now he is the governor of Kansas. In the Senate he has been replaced by Rep. Jerry Moran, who has an HRC scorecard of 0%.

Defeat: Minnesota arch-conservative Michelle Bachman won re-election to the House.

Defeat: Arizona Governor Jan Brewer, who authored the "show me your papers" state immigration law, was re-elected.

Defeat: Texas Governor, anti-gay Republican Rick Perry, re-elected.

Defeat: Republicans took over the majorities in both chambers of the state legislatures in Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Alabama – states which had both houses dominated by Democrats going into Tuesday’s votes. In Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, where only one chamber had a Republican majority, now both are dominated by Republicans. And the National Conference of State Legislatures reports that the Minnesota Senate will now, for the first time in history, be controlled by Republicans. The Maine Senate, too, has switched from a Democratic to Republican majority. In all 23 state legislatures are now completely dominated by Republicans, 15 by Democrats, seven are divided between the parties.

Dealing with Victories and Defeats

by Mark Gerardy

Back on election day 2008, it was a great day - a Democrat president after an eight-year hiatus, a Democrat-majority in the House and Senate, many Democrat governors, almost everything was perfect - except California's anti-gay Proposition 8 narrowly passed.

Wouldn't it be nice to be able to get everything that you want in one full-swoop?

Some elections, it has been good just to get anything that you want. Any victory, anywhere. Rarely, if ever, does anyone get every single thing that they want, either for Christmas or on Election Day. It's life.

Election Day 2010 probably will not be as good as 2008, and there will be fewer presents. I am fairly certain that despite my best efforts, unfortunately one of the Colorado Senate seats will go to openly-homophobic Republican Ken Buck. Between that and less Democrats in the Senate and House, things are not going to look very good for awhile.

There will be some victories, and probably more than just a few defeats. All ready to get started on 2012? Grrrrrr. I don't blame you, I will probably just be recovering from this last election, and will not want to see another negative television advertisement for a long time, and two years will not be long enough.

However after the smoke clears by the morning of Wednesday, November 3rd, we will have what we have. In two years, Barack Obama has appointed over 150 GLBT persons as policy officials, advisers, commission members, and other high-level staff members - more than Bill Clinton appointed in eight years. These may not be at the same level as Senators, but they are currently working as architects for social change.

DADT is like the Texas two-step: forward, now back, now forward three steps, now back three steps, docie-doh. Swing your partner. In-the-closet, out-of-the-closet, in the doorway of the closet, half-in and half-out with a half-assed policy that no one can figure out anymore. One thing is true however - the DADT homophobic beast is near death. It is no longer “if”, it is a question of “when”, but at least we know that it is soon to be another nightmare that is over.

The death of DADT will then open the door to the next GLBT battle that the community and elected officials collectively decide to tackle. That will most likely be repealing DOMA.

I have a lot of respect for Barney Frank, and I think that we should dedicate resources to getting ENDA passed too, however DOMA is the real fight to gear up for real social progress. Like DADT, DOMA is something to repeal, not pass like ENDA; like DADT, DOMA has also been ruled unconstitutional by several lower courts and is making its way through the appeals process.

In theory, the more conservative that a person is politically, the more that they should be pro-marriage, including same-gender marriages. Conservatives abhor both promiscuity yet are also against same-gender marriage, essentially offering nothing except impractical empty rhetoric – cold showers and prayer to their God, and that really does not compare to falling in love and making a home together. They are unwilling to acknowledge that millions of gays and lesbians are not just going to instantly divorce the one that they love, dismantle their homes and families, and magically march single-file back into the closet to appease the delicate sensitivities of the far-right's need for religious self-validation and thus tip-toe around the personal convictions of religious extremists.

As far as personal convictions, such as family, commitment and community go - this is where ultimately more and more moderates will reluctantly begin to at least quietly agree with same gender marriage as acceptable public policy - as long as they maintain their own personal feelings about what works for them personally within their own families, homes and churches. The far right inherently lacks objectivity, on many different levels, as they contradict themselves into a corner of absurdity. They cannot have it both ways: don't be promiscuous because this is irresponsible – but don't be monogamous either and be responsible. The far right's attempts to exert social control over GLBT persons to be relegated as "non-sexual" has already been lost per the Lawrence v. Texas decision.

Eventually the question will become, what values do the American people stand for - that should be applied to everyone equally? This without carving out exceptions when convenient to fulfill a social vendetta against another group.

After DADT fails, then next question to come to us is:

"Should we within the GLBT community consider or accept a National Domestic Partnership law granting federal recognition to civil unions, at least as an interim step?"

Before you resoundingly exclaim "no!" - consider that essentially this is consistent with the Uniting American Families Act (UAFA) in the wording of the bill that addresses "permanent partners". UAFA actually fits in synch as one small piece within a larger national domestic partnership law.

I have talked with many people across the country, and the average American cannot separate personal convictions from public policy. For many, they cannot separate secular civil marriage from a religious marriage and spiritual bond. Their knowledge of the Constitution is extremely limited. Christine O’Donnell, who is running for Senate representing Delaware, actually did not know about the First Article of the Constitution that establishes separation of church and state. Even after getting an education by her opponent, Democrat Chris Coons, she had the audacity to publicly exclaim that she gave him an education and thus claimed victory in the debate - despite being almost laughed out of the room by law students.

I believe that we can get 70% of what we want by taking the interim step through a national domestic partnership law granting federal recognition to civil unions, especially one that includes immigration. Certainly the best situation of all is to repeal DOMA, but I question how possible this will be with Anthony Kennedy as centrist in the middle, who ideologically probably is on our side, but is also a practical man, too. The far right already shrieks "Judicial Activism" to the point that a 5-4 GLBT victory overturning DOMA by SCOTUS also might cause civil unrest and a resulting bloodbath. Kennedy is not stupid, he knows this. The question for Kennedy becomes “is it worth it to enshrine your legacy as being on the right side of history, eventually, but at the cost of starting a small scale civil war”?

Texas and South Carolina have already saber-rattled in the past about succeeding from the Union - a victory of this magnitude might just cause a militia movement and a homophobic backlash that actually begins to parallel the 1960s civil unrest with marching in the streets, riots, beatings and water hoses. This might sound like a lot of fun to the angry GLBT crowd, until you hear the words "permanent disability", “pain” or "death". As angry as you are, there will always be someone else who is angrier, bigger, and/or has a bigger weapon than you and is seething with homophobia - and civil unrest is not worth the drama. Moderates who are caught in the crossfire could easily blame all of the mayhem on gays wanting too much too quickly – and then side with the far right. Martyrdom is overrated too - the love within our families and commitments are more important than fighting hate out in the streets. The ends do not justify the means.

Next time you lament about how progress is so slow, consider the above. As the next two years might take us past DADT and into DOMA/UAFA territory, perhaps it is a reasonable discussion to consider not asking for the whole enchilada just yet. There is a pragmatic aspect to compromise, and one is bringing our own foreign-born partners home or being able to keep them here with us in our homes through a quicker process to sponsorship as an auxiliary benefit to a national domestic partnership law.

Selling out? Perhaps, but the deal is not over, and will not be until we get the whole enchilada, but just like Christmas, you don't always get everything that you want. We won't on Tuesday, November 3rd and it takes time. If you want to get your loved one back in your arms quicker because you only have so much time left in your life, then maybe it is legitimate to be practical and get the dialog restarted within the GLBT community about a national domestic partnership law that includes immigration benefits.

So, if early November gives you the chills after the elections, consider that there are still opportunities out there. We may need to just think more about coming together in the middle. It may result in us being able to accomplish something more than we expected.